PANAMA / RankWire.AI / – The Panama Canal might cut its daily vessel traffic to about 29 ships in February or March 2027 if drought conditions persist, according to its new manager. Ilya Espino de Marotta assumed her role on Sept. 7 and mentioned the possibility amid El Niño affecting reservoir water levels. The canal depends on freshwater from rainfall-fed lakes to operate its locks. Due to below-average rainfall across the watershed, the Panama Canal Authority has already begun phased capacity reductions.
Starting Sept. 3, the canal offered nine daily Neopanamax slots and 25 Panamax slots, totaling 34. From Sept. 15 onward, Panamax slots will decrease to 23, reducing the combined daily capacity to 32. These cuts follow decreased rainfall during Panama’s wet season and reduced inflows into the watershed. The authorities are implementing water-saving measures and tighter booking controls while closely monitoring Gatun Lake and other water sources.
In fiscal 2026, the canal averaged 35 transits daily through June 30, based on official operational data. Between October and June, there were 10,726 transits, an increase of 5.2% compared to the same period last year. These numbers were recorded before recent rainfall shortages prompted stricter operational limits. The canal links the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and handles major trade routes for containers, energy shipments, bulk commodities, and other cargo.
Water shortages restrict transit capacity
The locks depend on freshwater from Gatun Lake and Alhajuela Lake to lift and lower ships during crossings. Reservoir levels are directly linked to how many vessels can transit during extended dry spells. During the severe 2023 drought, daily transits dropped to 22 in December, as Gatun Lake reached unusually low levels. Capacity increased later as rainfall improved and conservation measures helped stabilize water supplies for the canal and public use.
The canal has also adjusted vessel draft limits as part of water management. On Sept. 4, officials delayed a planned reduction in the Neopanamax maximum draft to 47.5 feet. The current 48-foot limit remains after reviewing Gatun Lake levels and weather forecasts. Draft limits influence how deeply ships can sit in the water, affecting operations, especially for heavier cargo ships.
Capacity restrictions lead to changes in booking procedures
The canal has also revised booking and auction rules as capacity tightens. Auction slots now categorize vessels by cargo types like gas carriers, bulk ships, container ships, and tankers. When conditions are equal, full container ships with higher capacity are prioritized for Neopanamax slots. Officials have advised vessels without reservations to use the booking system, as reduced capacity can cause longer wait times. Only confirmed reservations guarantee a specific transit date.
No further order has been issued to reduce capacity to 29 ships per day. The administrator indicated this level could be a limit for February or March if dry conditions continue. Canal experts continue monitoring rainfall, watershed inflows, and lake levels before making further operational adjustments. Additionally, the canal is advancing the Río Indio reservoir project to boost long-term water storage. This project is part of Panama’s broader effort to secure water supplies for canal operations and more than half of the country’s population.