ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan makes up roughly 48% of the population living in extreme poverty across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAAP), according to the World Bank’s October 2026 economic update. The measure relies on the international extreme poverty threshold of $3 a day, adjusted for 2021 purchasing power parity. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at this level increased by 6.4 percentage points. This growth positions Pakistan as the main contributor to extreme poverty within the MENAAP region.
The World Bank reported that Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen together account for another 47% of MENAAP’s population living under the $3 daily threshold. When combined with Pakistan, these four countries represent about 95% of the region’s extreme poor. MENAAP now accounts for approximately 14% of the world’s extreme poor, a share surpassed only by Sub-Saharan Africa. The region remains the only one where poverty levels are above pre-pandemic figures and continue to climb.
Additionally, Pakistan’s situation has worsened at the higher $4.20-a-day poverty line, used for lower-middle-income countries. The percentage of people below this threshold increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25. According to World Bank data, the rate reached about 48% in 2024, up from 44.7% in 2018. The report attributes this decline to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2022 floods, soaring inflation, currency depreciation, and a long period of economic adjustment.
Poverty pressures intensify amid multiple shocks
These latest findings follow a major update to the World Bank’s global poverty database in March 2026. New household survey data from Pakistan increased the estimated MENAAP extreme poverty rate for 2024 from 11.8% to 14.4%. This revision added around 21 million people to the region’s total of those living in extreme poverty. In September 2026, the World Bank stated that MENAAP remained one of only two regions with extreme poverty rates above 5%, alongside Sub-Saharan Africa.
Pakistan’s economy has shown signs of recovery from recent lows, but poverty levels remain high. The October regional update forecasted Pakistan’s GDP growth at 3.7% for fiscal 2025-26 and projected 3.8% for 2026-27. It also estimated real GDP per capita growth at 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is expected to be 7.1% in 2026, rising to 8.2% in 2027, after a lower rate in 2025.
Regional classification influences headline statistics
The 48% figure reflects the World Bank’s current classification of MENAAP, which has included Pakistan and Afghanistan since September 2025. Prior to this, both countries were categorized within South Asia by the World Bank. Pakistan’s government described this change as administrative and statistical, asserting it did not alter the country’s geographic identity or income classification. Finance Minister adviser Khurram Schehzad explained that the revision shifted regional poverty totals by incorporating Pakistan’s large population into the MENAAP calculations.
The World Bank’s October update also projected a weaker regional economy in 2026. It forecasted a contraction of 2.1% for MENAAP after a growth of 3.3% in 2025, citing conflict and disruptions to energy, logistics, and trade as key factors. Oil-importing developing economies, including Pakistan, are expected to remain relatively resilient. The update predicts a 4.3% growth rate for this group in 2026. However, rising food and energy prices continue to strain household budgets across multiple economies.